Most DTC brands do not die from a bad product. They die from running out of cash with stock on the water and a payroll run due. A rolling 13-week cash flow model is the single spreadsheet that stops that happening - it forecasts your cash position week by week, far enough ahead to act while you still have options. Update it every Monday and you will always know your runway and your tightest week.
What's inside
- Weekly opening and closing cash position, 13 weeks out
- Receipts and payments broken down by category
- Inventory purchases and supplier payment timing
- Week-by-week cash-negative warnings so you see the squeeze before it hits
- Runway and reserve-trigger flags
Who it's for
Bootstrapped and early-stage DTC founders managing cash week to week, and anyone heading into a high-inventory period like BFCM.
What is a 13-week cash flow forecast?
A 13-week cash flow forecast is a rolling, week-by-week projection of every dollar coming into and out of the business over the next quarter. Not a 12-month budget, not a monthly P&L - a weekly view of actual cash, because the things that kill brands (a supplier PO, a payroll run, a quarterly tax bill) land in specific weeks, and a monthly view smooths them into invisibility.
It answers one question: will there be cash in the bank every single week for the next 13 weeks? If the answer is ever no, you want to know today, while you still have options.
Why 13 weeks?
Thirteen weeks is one quarter - long enough to see a squeeze building while you can still do something about it, short enough that a week-by-week forecast stays honest. It's the standard horizon in corporate restructuring for exactly that reason: it's the window in which cash problems are still fixable. For a DTC brand carrying inventory, it comfortably covers the gap between paying a supplier and collecting the revenue that stock generates.
How the 13-week cash flow model works
One row per line item, thirteen columns - one per week. Each week: opening cash balance, plus collections and any other income, minus inventory payments, marketing, payroll, fulfilment, software, rent, tax and debt service. What's left is the closing balance, which rolls forward as next week's opening balance. The template lays all of this out for you, with cash-negative warnings and runway flags built in.
How to use it
Update it every Monday. Enter last week's actuals, roll the window forward a week, and reforecast anything that's diverging from plan. If any closing balance goes negative, that's a problem to solve the week you see it, not the week it lands: delay a purchase order, draw on credit, pull back marketing, or accelerate collections. The worst option is assuming it will sort itself out.
Why DTC brands need this more than most
Growth eats cash. Stock sits on the water while payroll comes due; a BFCM inventory build can swallow a quarter's worth of cash months before the revenue arrives. Revenue is not cash, and profitable brands run out of money with full warehouses. The full doctrine - the cash conversion cycle, the growth death spiral, and your funding options - lives in Cash Flow & Funding.
Common questions
What is a 13-week cash flow forecast?
A rolling weekly projection of cash in and cash out over the next 13 weeks (one quarter). It tracks your opening and closing cash position week by week so a shortfall shows up while you still have time to act.
Why 13 weeks and not a 12-month budget?
Because cash problems land in specific weeks - a supplier payment, a payroll run, a tax bill - and monthly or annual views smooth them into invisibility. Thirteen weeks is long enough to see a squeeze coming and short enough to forecast honestly.
How often should I update it?
Weekly, same day every week (Monday works). Enter actuals, roll the window forward one week, and reforecast anything diverging from plan. A 13-week cash flow that isn't updated weekly is just a spreadsheet.
What do I do if a week goes negative?
Fix it the week you see it, not the week it lands. The levers: delay a purchase order, draw on credit, reduce marketing spend, or accelerate collections. The worst option is pretending it will sort itself out.
Is the template really free?
Yes. Create a free account and download it - no subscription, no credit card, no upsell. It's part of the free tool set that goes with the playbook's Cash Flow & Funding section.